Archive for the ‘arbitrage’ Category

Triangular arbitrage

Sunday, February 7th, 2010

Triangular arbitrage (sometimes called triangle arbitrage) refers to taking advantage of a state of imbalance between three foreign exchange markets: a combination of matching deals are struck that exploit the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices.

Triangular arbitrage offers a risk-free profit (in theory), so opportunities for triangular arbitrage usually disappear quickly, as many people are looking for them, or simply never occur as everybody knows the pricing relation.

Example

Consider the three foreign exchange rates among the Canadian dollar, the U.S. dollar, and the Australian dollar. Triangular arbitrage will produce a profit whenever the following relation does not hold:

CD$/US$ * AU$/CD$ = AU$/US$.

For example if you can trade at these exchange rates

* the Canadian Dollar (CD$) against the US dollar (US$) is CD$1.13/US$1.00 (1 US$ gets you CD$1.13)
* the Australian Dollar (AU$) against the US dollar (US$) is AU$1.33/US$1.00 (1 US$ gets you AU$1.33)
* the Australian Dollar (AU$) against the Canadian Dollar (CD$) is AU$1.18/CD$1.00 (1 CD$ gets you AU$1.18)

1.13 * 1.18 = 1.3334 > 1.3300, thus mispricing has occurred.

To take advantage of the mispricing, starting with US$10,000 to invest:

* 1st buy Canadian Dollars with his US Dollars: US$10,000 * (CD$1.13/US$1) = CD$11,300
* 2nd buy Australian Dollars with his Canadian Dollars: CD$11,300 * (AU$1.18/CD$1.00) = AU$13,334
* 3rd buy US Dollars with his Australian Dollars: AU$13,334 / (AU$1.33/US$1.0000) = US$10,025
* Net risk free profit: US$25.00

A profit maximizing trader presented with these prices will trade up to the maximum size possible, or equivalently do the trade as many times as possible, until one of the traders on the other side of one of the deals changes his price. In practice currencies are quoted with a bid ask spread, so a trader should be careful that he is actually buying at the quoted ask price, and selling at the quoted bid price. Other transaction costs, such as commissions often prevent the trade from being profitable.

The debacle of Long-Term Capital Management

Monday, January 25th, 2010

Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) lost 4.6 billion U.S. dollars in fixed income arbitrage in September 1998. LTCM had attempted to make money on the price difference between different bonds. For example, it would sell U.S. Treasury securities and buy Italian bond futures. The concept was that because Italian bond futures had a less liquid market, in the short term Italian bond futures would have a higher return than U.S. bonds, but in the long term, the prices would converge. Because the difference was small, a large amount of money had to be borrowed to make the buying and selling profitable.

The downfall in this system began on August 17, 1998, when Russia defaulted on its ruble debt and domestic dollar debt. Because the markets were already nervous due to the Asian financial crisis, investors began selling non-U.S. treasury debt and buying U.S. treasuries, which were considered a safe investment. As a result the price on US treasuries began to increase and the return began decreasing because there were many buyers, and the return on other bonds began to increase because there were many sellers. This caused the difference between the prices of U.S. treasuries and other bonds to increase, rather than to decrease as LTCM was expecting. Eventually this caused LTCM to fold, and their creditors had to arrange a bail-out. More controversially, officials of the Federal Reserve assisted in the negotiations that led to this bail-out, on the grounds that so many companies and deals were intertwined with LTCM that if LTCM actually failed, they would as well, causing a collapse in confidence in the economic system. Thus LTCM failed as a fixed income arbitrage fund, although it is unclear what sort of profit was realized by the banks that bailed LTCM out.